Over the next five years, the pharmaceutical industry is expected to see a 6.5% increase in global prescription drugs

Writer:www.PharmNet.com.cnSource:www.PharmNet.com.cn Date:2017-07-22

  Today, EvaluatePharma has released its 2017 global outlook report, which looks forward to the future of the pharmaceutical industry in 2017-2022. According to projections, the global prescription drug market will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 6.5 per cent between 2017 and 2022, reaching us $106 billion by 2022.


  It is worth mentioning that this is the first time that EvaluatePharma has lowered its sales forecast for the first time in the past decade. In its report last year, it predicted that the global prescription drug market would be worth $112 billion in 2022. 

Best-selling drug: the king of the United States 

Tumor immune products are on the rise 

  The drive to increase the market for prescription drugs in the next few years will come mainly from tumor immune-drugs such as Opdivo and Keytruda, which report that by 2022 the two products will be listed in three or four of the best-sellers.



  On the top of, although AbbVie (AbbVie) of merlot (Humira) have multiple vendors for the development of similar drugs, but it is predicted that the drug will still rely on sales of $15.9 billion in 2022, keep their best selling drugs. 

Pharmaceutical companies list:


The first three are very close,


Who ends up in a wild card

  However, Merck, emberville and bristol-myers Squibb have not significantly improved their drug companies' rankings because of their blockbuster drugs. The report says Novartis will become the world's largest drug sales company by 2022, in a position reported last year by Roche. As previously, the gap between top three is very weak, according to the forecast, to 2022 novartis prescription drug sales revenue of $49.8 billion, Pfizer (Pfizer) for $49.7 billion, roche for $49.6 billion.


  However, once the impact of the biosimilars is stronger than expected, the list changes. Both roche and Pfizer face a competitive threat to biosimilars.


  Among them, roche Avastin for its best-selling products with Herceptin will patents expire over the next two years and the biggest pressure, but it has passed the new approved Tecentriq and Ocrevus strengthened their product line, which will make up the loss of sales. For Pfizer, the company is widely seen as needing a merger that would transform it, and may seek such acquisitions. At the moment, the rankings of the previous drug companies could change. 

Growth potential:


New basic medicine of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies,


Shire grows fastest 

In the global drug companies outside the Top five list, new medicine (its) with Shire's window, in the next few years it will with compound average annual growth rate of growth of 15% and 10% respectively, is the world's drug firms in the Top 20 fastest-growing companies. Shire's acquisition of Baxalta has given rise to growth; At the same time, the new base medicine's Revlimid continued to perform well, and new products Otezla and Pomalyst were also starting to work. It is worth noting that the new base medicine is still highly dependent on the indomide, which raises the risk level of the company.


Of course, new base medicine isn't the only company to worry that its top-selling products are under pressure from generic competition. The report predicts that over the next five years, $194bn in drug sales will be at risk because of competition for generic drugs. One of the biggest concerns is the level of sales of the best-selling biologics. 

R&d investment:


The highest growth rate of new base and BI,


Roche is the biggest 

In analysts' view, the r&d line of Biogen and J&J has the highest net present value (NPV). Among them, the best health care in phase Ⅲ clinical resistance of alzheimer's disease amyloid protein drug candidates aducanumab NPV of more than $10 billion; The NPV of apalutamide, a non-steroidal anti-androgen drug for prostate cancer, is also close to $10 billion, and is forecast to reach $1.6 billion by 2022.


Global drug companies are expected to invest $157.5 billion in research and development this year, compared with last year, but the figure is expected to rise to $181bn by 2022. According to calculations, the pharmaceutical industry accounted for 20.4 per cent of prescription drug sales last year, and the figure is expected to fall to 17.1 per cent by 2022. The report notes that the pharmaceutical industry spent $1.66 billion on research and development in 2007 and 2016.


By analyzing the costs of research and development, EvaluatePharma estimates that it costs up to $4 billion to develop a new molecular entity over the past decade.


The report says roche will be ahead of other pharmaceutical companies in 2022 with a $9.6 billion investment in research and development. In the research and development into the top 20 companies, new medicine with Boehringer Ingelheim (Boehringer represent Ingelheim) research and development investment growth is in the top two, from now until 2022, its annual will increase by 13% and 6% respectively research and development budget. 

Development line value:


Roche tops the list,


Astrazeneca, eberville into the top three 

Roche also tops the research and development charts. The report argues that the company is proving its ambition to be a leader in anti-cancer areas. Roche's hemophilia potential "bombshell" emicizumab (despite some clinical trials), and lampalizumab, which has atrophic pattern atrophy (in the form of dry AMD), is thought to be the most promising. The report predicts that the two drugs will generate $24.5 billion in sales revenue by 2022.


Research value to the top of the list is two other companies AstraZeneca (AstraZeneca) and AbbVie (AbbVie), among them, AstraZeneca, with its new approved tumor immune drugs Imfinzi and candidate anticancer drugs tremelimumab, AbbVie with GnRH antagonists elagolix, antibody coupling drug candidate alkylating Rova and JAK inhibitor ABT - 494 - T follow closely behind roche.


In terms of return on investment (ROI), according to the report Novo Nordisk (Novo Nordisk) will lead the industry, the ROI is as high as 4.8, new medicine, followed by ROI is 2.7, Bayer (Bayer) ranks third.


The report notes that only roche's ROI is higher than one in the three drug companies, and Pfizer's big spending on r&d appears to have been met with difficulties in monetization. According to the report, for companies such as bristol-myers squibb and new base pharmaceuticals, the implementation of enhanced m&a could help it further improve its ROI. 

































TypeInfo: Industry news

Keywords for the information:The global market for prescription drugs